Australia's energy future hangs in the balance as nuclear power emerges as a contender against renewables, challenging long-held cost assumptions. The CSIRO's GenCost report, criticised for underestimating nuclear's lifespan (30 years versus 60–100 years globally), low capacity utilisation (53% versus 80–90%), and inflated uranium costs, may skew comparisons. Meanwhile, renewables, though celebrated for declining costs, conceal expenses like offshore wind, extensive storage, and transmission needs to ensure reliability across decades of variable weather—costs often absent from models like AEMO's Integrated System Plan, which prioritizes government renewable targets over independent analysis.

Nuclear power, despite Western delays and overruns (e.g., Vogtle, Hinkley Point C), has seen success in China, Korea, and the UAE, where proven designs and streamlined processes prevail. Australia could follow suit by adopting tested reactors, building larger plants for economies of scale, and aligning builder-operator interests, though challenges like regulatory reform and public acceptance loom. Renewables, too, face infrastructure hurdles, with projects like Snowy 2.0 and HumeLink ballooning in cost. To decarbonise affordably while keeping the lights on, Australia must compare energy sources holistically, weighing nuclear's reliability against renewables' scalability in a rapidly shifting energy landscape.

energy.cis.org.au/

Aidan Morrison is a leading researcher into Energy Systems and currently the Director of Energy Research at the Centre for Independent Studies. In 2023 he exposed how the famous CSIRO report “GenCost” excluded vast costs required to integrate and firm renewables by treating them as “sunk” costs. In 2024 he was amongst the strongest voices calling for nuclear energy in Australia and was a leading critic of the ‘Integrated System Plan’ (or ISP): Australia’s blue-print for a transition to an energy system dominated by wind and solar. Following the conclusion of a recent Senate Inquiry into Australia’s energy planning and regulation, Aidan reached the conclusion that the ISP is “worse than useless” and declared that trust in Australia energy establishment is now so badly broken that a series of resignations will be required to restore the credibility and respect that regulatory organisations required to administer the energy system.
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